WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25

Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide possible future hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer potential inform current adaptation increase resilience by filling important gap between seasonal forecasts projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this in 2017 established WMO Lead Centre for Annual Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides large multimodel ensemble of covering next 5 years. This international collaboration produces prediction that is more skillful useful than any single center can achieve. One main outputs Global Update (GADCU), consensus forecast based these predictions. update includes maps showing key variables, discussion skill, indices such global mean near-surface temperature Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates probability exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels at least 1 year years, helps policy-makers understand how closely world approaching goal Paris Agreement. paper, written authors GADCU, introduces presents its outputs, briefly discusses role providing vital information society now future.